Putins Welt

WIEN – Der Westen lebt nun in Putins Welt. Er ist nicht dort, weil Putin recht hat oder gar stärker ist, sondern weil er die Initiative ergreift. Putin ist „wild“, während der Westen „abwartend“ ist. Obwohl die europäischen und amerikanischen Entscheidungsträger erkennen, dass sich die Welt in einem dramatischen Wandel befindet, können sie ihn nicht ganz erfassen. Sie sind immer noch überwältigt von Putins Wandlung vom Geschäftsführer der Russland GmbH in einen ideologiegetriebenen nationalen Führer, der vor nichts Halt macht, um den Einfluss seines Landes wiederherzustellen.

Die internationale Politik mag zwar auf Verträgen beruhen, doch funktioniert sie anhand rationaler Erwartungen. Wenn sich diese Erwartungen als falsch herausstellen, bricht die vorherrschende internationale Ordnung zusammen. Genau das ist in der ukrainischen Krise passiert.

Noch vor ein paar Monaten waren die meisten westlichen Politiker davon überzeugt, dass Revisionismus in einer voneinander abhängigen Welt zu kostspielig wäre und dass Putin trotz seiner Entschlossenheit, Russlands Interessen im postsowjetischen Raum durchzusetzen, dazu nicht auf militärische Mittel zurückgreifen würde. Jetzt wird deutlich, dass sie sich schmerzlich geirrt haben.

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