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普京的世界

维也纳—如今,西方生活在普京的世界中。之所以如此,不是因为普京是对的,甚至也不是因为普京更强大,而是因为他采取了行动。普京是“狂野的”,而西方是“谨慎的”。尽管欧洲和美国领导人都知道世界秩序正在经历剧变,但他们无法紧紧地抓住。他们仍对普京从俄罗斯公司首席执行官向以意识形态为后盾、排除万难重塑祖国影响力的国家领袖的转变不知所措。

国际政治或许可以建立在条约的基础上,但其运转的基础乃是理性预期。如果预期错了,那么现有国际秩序就会崩溃。乌克兰危机就是明证。

仅仅几个月前,大部分西方政客都笃定地认为,在一个互相依赖的世界,修正主义代价太大,而即使普京决心捍卫俄罗斯在前苏联地区的利益,他也不会动用武力来实现这一点。现在,显然他们完全算错了。

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