Italie : le nouveau gouvernement bientôt paralysé ?

Depuis plus d'une décennie, l'Italie connaît un système politique bipolaire. Les électeurs doivent choisir entre une coalition de gauche et une coalition de droite. Les déçus du gouvernement en place peuvent choisir l'opposition. L'existence d'une véritable alternative permet de discipliner les politiciens : ce n'est pas par hasard que le gouvernement de Berlusconi est parvenu au bout de son mandat.

C'est là une grosse différence avec la vie politique italienne de la fin de la guerre jusqu'au début des années 1990. Durant cette période, les gouvernements italiens tenaient un an en moyenne. Les mêmes parties centristes se retrouvant toujours au pouvoir, les électeurs ne parvenaient pas à se décider entre le gouvernement en place et l'opposition. Les crises gouvernementales étaient simplement l'occasion d'un changement de titulaire des principaux portefeuilles ou de la faction du parti du Premier ministre.

Maintenant le risque est grand de voir les politiciens italiens revenir à leurs vieilles habitudes. Cela peut paraître étrange, étant donné l'antagonisme qui s'est manifesté entre Romano Prodi et Silvio Berlusconi au cours de la campagne électorale. Mais cet antagonisme traduisait tout autant la personnalisation de la politique due à Berlusconi qu'une caractéristique institutionnelle qu'il a abolit. L'un des derniers actes de son gouvernement a été de remplacer le système électoral majoritaire introduit en 1993 par un système proportionnel. Le nouveau système pousse les politiciens à adopter une autre stratégie et pourrait conduire à un retour au régime des partis.

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