Europa, lo stile italiano

MILANO – La scorsa estate, dopo due anni di crescente incertezza, il rischio sistemico presente nell’Eurozona aveva finalmente iniziato ad attenuarsi, nel momento in cui erano confluiti gli impegni condizionali. L’Italia e la Spagna offrivano riforme fiscali credibili e orientate alla crescita, mentre la Banca centrale europea, con l’appoggio della Germania, prometteva gli interventi necessari per stabilizzare il settore bancario e i mercati di debito sovrano.

Sfortunatamente, quel trend potrebbe cambiare. La crescita nell’Eurozona si è rivelata negativa ovunque, soprattutto nel sud. La disoccupazione si attesta all’incirca al 12% in Italia, quella giovanile al 38%. Allo stesso modo, il tasso di disoccupazione della Spagna è superiore al 25% (quella giovanile al 55%). E gli indicatori economici francesi stanno rapidamente scivolando verso il basso.

Nel frattempo, il risultato delle elezioni tenutesi in Italia lascerà con tutta probabilità il Paese – terza economia dell’Europa e terzo Paese al mondo per dimensioni del debito sovrano – senza un governo stabile. Sarà quindi difficile sostenere un programma di riforme che sia abbastanza vigoroso da soddisfare la Bce e i principali Paesi dell’Eurozona.

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