Dans quelle direction aller après Gaza ?

CANBERRA – La réaction la plus sensée à la deuxième guerre de Gaza pourrait bien être le commentaire d’un Israélien vivant dans un kibboutz proche de la frontière avec la bande de Gaza : « Si vous voulez me défendre…Ne nous envoyez pas les forces de défense d’Israël pour ‘gagner’ » écrit Michal Vasser dans Hareetz le 15 novembre. «  Commencez à penser à long terme et pas seulement aux prochaines élections. Essayez de négocier jusqu’à ce qu’une fumée blanche sorte de la cheminée. Tendez la main au président palestinien Mahmoud Abbas. Cessez les ‘meurtres ciblés’ et regardez aussi dans les yeux des civils de l’autre côté ».

Israël est bien sûr en droit de se défendre contre les tirs de roquette. Mais les leçons des deux dernières décennies ont démontré que quand une chance de paix existe, les attaques cessent et les intifadas ne commencent pas – et que quand cette chance n’existe pas, le militantisme palestinien est incontrôlable.

Les probabilités de parvenir à un accord sur la solution à deux États, aujourd’hui négociée avec l’Autorité palestinienne de Mahmoud Abbas en Cisjordanie – et de son acceptation, bien qu’à contrecœur par le Hamas de Gaza à la suite d’un vote populaire – sont faibles et s’éloignent de jour en jour. Mais la seule alternative est un cycle récurrent de violence meurtrière entre les Israéliens et les Palestiniens.

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