Новые проблемы нового Ближнего Востока

БЕРЛИН – Когда в прошлом месяце в секторе Газа вновь вспыхнули военные действия, всем казалось, что старая история вновь повторяется. Мир вновь стал свидетелем всплеска кровавого и бессмысленного насилия между Израилем и ХАМАСом, главными жертвами которого стали убитые и искалеченные невинные мирные жители с обеих сторон.

Однако на этот раз все происходит не так, как казалось, поскольку Ближний Восток в течение последних двух лет претерпел значительные изменения. Политический эпицентр в этом неспокойном регионе сместился от конфликта между Израилем и палестинцами к Персидскому заливу и борьбе за региональное господство между Ираном, по одну сторону баррикад, и Саудовской Аравией, Турцией и Египтом ‑ по другую их сторону. В разгорающейся борьбе между региональными шиитскими и суннитскими государствами старые ближневосточные конфликты отошли на второй план.

На сегодняшний день, ключевое противостояние в этой борьбе за власть происходит в гражданской войне в Сирии, в котором, непосредственно или косвенно, представлены все основные региональные игроки и которое во многом решит борьбу за региональную гегемонию. Совершенно ясно: президент Сирии Башар аль-Асад с его алавитско/шиитской опорой не сможет сохранить контроль при суннитском большинстве, как в стране, так и в регионе, в целом. Вопрос заключается лишь в том, когда режим падет.

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