新中东的新问题

柏林—上个月,加沙的敌对爆发,老故事似乎又开始复制自己了。世界再次看到了以色列和哈马斯之间无谓的流血暴力激增,主要受害者是双方致死致残的无辜平民。

但是,这一回,事情不像表面上那么简单,因为中东在过去两年里发生了重要的变化。这一麻烦地区的政治震中已从巴以冲突转向波斯湾和地区霸权之争,这场争夺的一方是伊朗,另一方是沙特、土耳其和现在的埃及。在该地区新出现的什叶派和逊尼派势力的斗争中,老中东冲突已不再是大事了。

如今,这一势力斗争的关键冲突是叙利亚内战,中东地区的主要大国都直接或间接地牵涉其中,因为这是一场事关地区领导权归属的战斗。显而易见,叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德及其阿拉维派/什叶派实力基础无法完整地控制这个逊尼派占多数的国家。唯一的问题是阿萨德什么时候倒台。

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