Ist Syrien der nächste Dominostein?

LONDON – Nach dem Abtritt der tunesischen und ägyptischen Regierung und angesichts der Proteste auf den Straßen von Algier bis Teheran fragen sich viele Menschen, welcher Dominostein als Nächstes fallen könnte. Syrien, dessen säkulare, militarisierte Diktatur den gestürzten Regimes von Tunesien und Ägypten am meisten ähnelt, folgt vielleicht nicht sofort, aber scheint trotzdem an einem Wendepunkt zu stehen.

Für die Tatsache, dass verschiedene Teile einer Region in Verbindung miteinander stehen, war die alte “Domino-Theorie” in den Internationalen Beziehungen natürlich nur eine grobe Beschreibung. Eine bessere Metapher für die heutige arabische Welt wäre vielleicht ein Schachbrett, auf dem sich durch die Entfernung einer noch so unbedeutenden Figur das Verhältnis zwischen allen anderen Figuren ändert.

Trotz wachsender Proteste glauben die Regierungen der arabischen Länder in Nahost und Nordafrika wahrscheinlich immer noch, dass sie interne Meinungsverschiedenheiten in Eigenregie eindämmen können.

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