Paul Lachine

¿Es todavía necesario el estímulo?

LONDRES – ¿Han resucitado los paquetes de estímulo a las traumatizadas economías del mundo? ¿O han fijado la escena para sufrir inflación y grandes cargas de deuda en el futuro? La respuesta es que pueden haber hecho ambas cosas. La pregunta clave ahora es en qué orden en que ocurrirán.

La teoría subyacente a las enormes iniciativas de estímulo económico que muchos gobiernos han emprendido es la noción de la "brecha del producto", es decir, la diferencia entre el producto real de una economía y su producto potencial. Si el producto real está por debajo del potencial, significa que el gasto total es insuficiente para comprar lo que la economía puede producir.

Un estímulo es un impulso al gasto total fomentado por el gobierno. El gobierno puede gastar más dinero por sí mismo, o intentar estimular el gasto privado reduciendo los impuestos o los tipos de interés. Esto llevará el producto real al nivel del producto potencial, cerrando con ello la brecha del producto.

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