Paul Lachine

Brauchen wir noch Konjunkturimpulse?

LONDON: Haben die bisherigen Konjunkturpakete die traumatisierten Volkswirtschaften unserer Welt wieder zum Leben erweckt? Oder haben sie der Inflation und umfangreichen zukünftigen Schuldenlasten den Weg bereitet? Die Antwort lautet: möglicherweise beides. Die zentrale Frage ist nun, in welcher Reihenfolge diese Ergebnisse eintreten.

Die Theorie, die den enormen Konjunkturmaßnahmen, die viele Regierungen ergriffen haben, zugrunde liegt, beruht auf der Vorstellung der „Produktionslücke“, d.h. der Differenz zwischen der tatsächlichen und der potenziellen Produktion einer Volkswirtschaft. Bleibt die tatsächliche Produktion hinter der potenziellen Produktion zurück, bedeutet dies, dass die Gesamtausgaben zu gering sind, um all das zu kaufen, was die Volkswirtschaft produzieren kann.

Eine Konjunkturmaßnahme ist eine vom Staat ausgehende Erhöhung der Gesamtausgaben. Der Staat kann dabei entweder selbst mehr Geld ausgeben, oder er kann versuchen, die privaten Ausgaben durch Steuer- oder Zinssenkungen anzukurbeln. Dies hebt die tatsächliche Produktion auf das Niveau der potenziellen Produktion und schließt so die Produktionslücke.

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