Paul Lachine

أما زال التحفيز ضرورياً؟

لندن ـ تُرى هل نجحت خطط التحفيز في إعادة الاقتصاد المصدوم في مختلف بلدان العالم إلى الحياة؟ أم أن خطط التحفيز هذه لم تسفر إلا عن تمهيد الساحة أمام التضخم وأعباء الديون الضخمة في المستقبل؟ الإجابة هي أنها ربما تسببت في كل من الأمرين. والسؤال الرئيسي المطروح الآن يتعلق بترتيب حدوث هذه النتائج.

إن النظرية وراء جهود التحفيز الاقتصادي الهائلة التي تبنتها الحكومات في عدد كبير من بلدان العالم تستند إلى مفهوم "فجوة الناتج" ـ الفارق بين الناتج الفعلي والناتج المحتمل لاقتصاد ما. فإذا كان الناتج الفعلي أدنى من الناتج المحتمل فإن هذا يعني أن إجمالي الإنفاق لا يكفي لشراء ما يستطيع الاقتصاد أن ينتجه.

إن الحافز عبارة عن محاولة من تدبير حكومي الهدف منه دعم الإنفاق الكلي. وتستطيع الحكومة إما أن تنفق المزيد من المال، أو تحاول حفز الإنفاق الخاص من خلال خفض الضرائب أو خفض أسعار الفائدة. وهذا من شأنه أن يساهم في رفع الناتج الفعلي إلى مستوى الناتج المحتمل، وبالتالي إغلاق فجوة الناتج.

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