控制通货膨胀是一场正确的战争吗?

伯克利-这些天来,美联储和其他中央银行都处于来自左右两个方向的压力之下:在左边,它们有采取措施扩大需求并降低失业率的压力;在右边,它们有缩减需求以控制通货膨胀的压力。

这样的情形易于产生问题,因为以上两个要求中肯定有一个是错误的。如果全球经济的主要问题是全球需求不足,世界各国的中央银行提高利率,就会导致萧条。如果全球经济在主要问题是通货膨胀,世界各国的央行不提高利率,就会引起物价的飙升,从而提高了通胀的预期,并导致像20世纪70年代那样顽固的工资-价格螺旋式上升,而这样的螺旋式上升只有通过以后更严重的经济萧条才能得以缓解。
        我认为,在这次,在全球经济的后工业化北大西洋核心中,上面左边所采取的方法是对的。整体通货膨胀数字是不断加剧的通货膨胀是一个问题、或者甚至是一个事实的唯一指标。美国劳动力成本指数和发达国家名义工资增长的其他指标没有显示出改变加速度。“核心通胀率”指标也没有显示加速通货膨胀的迹象。

美国正在经历一场由抵押贷款损失导致的金融灾难,这场灾难在使用通常的货币政策的情况下,会沦为一场严重的经济衰退或萧条。在正常时期,美联储的反应——通常是极端的货币刺激——会引发严重的通货膨胀。但是现在不是正常时期。事实上,美联储的货币政策并不能完全阻止美国经济的衰退,尽管衰退仍然很温和,以至于许多人怀疑它是否真的是洪水猛兽。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/kD3pTk5/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.