Je Indie připravena na úplnou směnitelnost měny?

Indickou politickou odvahu v úsilí o dosažení míru s Pákistánem ve společném soumračném zápase o Kašmír, který už trvá celé půlstoletí, by brzy mohly doplnit obdobně smělé hospodářské kroky. Indie skutečně směřuje k odvážné reformě: úplné mezinárodní směnitelnosti rupie. To, jak celou věc zvládne, neovlivní pouze indický hospodářský vývoj, ale poskytne modelový příklad i Číně, která výhledově o směnitelnosti uvažuje.

Od roku 1991 Indie přecházela od devalvace rupie k úplné směnitelnosti, když Rezervní banka Indie (RBI) uvolňovala celou škálu devizových regulačních mechanismů. Indové s trvalým bydlištěm v Indii dnes mohou mít účet v cizí měně a investovat do akcií zahraničních společností, zatímco Indové s trvalým bydlištěm mimo Indii mohou repatriovat dědická/pozůstalostní aktiva. Indické společnosti kotované v zahraničí mohou za hranicemi nakupovat majetek a domácím firmám bude povoleno si předplatit zahraniční obchodní dluh do výše 100 milionů USD. Limity na valutových účtech vývozců budou zrušeny a banky budou moci investovat na zámořských trzích peněz a dluhů.

Je Indie připravena na úplnou směnitelnost? Vláda stále zaostává ve svých reformách domácího hospodářství. Strukturální reforma a privatizace se zpomalily, což rozrušuje důvěru investorů. Neschopnost vypořádat se se strukturálními problémy by v dlouhodobém horizontu mohla vystavit ekonomiku vnějším otřesům.

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