Диалог с Ираном и Сирией: стоит ли овчинка выделки?

Несмотря на частые заверения в обратном, фундаментальная проблема на Ближнем Востоке состоит не во вмешательстве Запада. Напротив, реальная проблема в том, что западные державы, сколько они ни вмешиваются, оказываются не в состоянии ни вести войну, ни наладить диалог. В результате все жители региона находятся в заложниках у ближневосточных диктаторских режимов и множащихся террористов.

Сторонники иракской войны не понимали, какие сложности связаны с ведением эффективной войны за либерализацию и демократизацию. В результате их политика просто привела к устранению двух основных конкурентов Ирана в регионе: Талибана и режима Саддама Хусейна. Это дало Ирану превосходный шанс выдвинуться на роль регионального гегемона, и не похоже, чтоб лидеры Ирана позволили этому шансу ускользнуть.

Сторонники диалога с Ираном и его союзницей – Сирией, например, бывший госсекретарь США Джеймс Бейкер, находятся под влиянием заблуждения, что они действительно смогут добиться взаимопонимания, которое позволит США красиво уйти из Ирака и будет содействовать стабилизации в этой истерзанной стране. Это заблуждение основано на двух ложных предположениях: что Иран и Сирия могут добиться успеха в Ираке, где США потерпели неудачу, и что международное сообщество может себе позволить заплатить ту цену, которая требуется для обеспечения их сотрудничества.

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