与伊朗和叙利亚的对话是否值得?

尽管总有人强调相反的一面,但困扰中东地区的本质问题并不是西方的干预。恰恰相反,尽管西方列强不断参与中东事务,但他们似乎既不愿意挑起战争,也不愿意进行对话。于是生活在中东地区的民众就完全听命于那里的压迫性政府和愈演愈烈的恐怖主义。

伊拉克战争的倡导者对当地的复杂局势缺乏深入了解,因此发动不了有效的民主解放战争。结果是他们的政策只不过替伊朗消除了两大地区性对手:塔利班和萨达姆·侯赛因政权。这给伊朗提供了充当地区霸主的天赐良机,而伊朗统治者是绝对不会放过这种机会的。

像美国前国务卿詹姆斯·贝克(James Baker)那样倡导与伊朗及其叙利亚盟友展开对话的政客梦想能够与伊朗达成谅解,使美国能够从伊拉克体面地撤军,从而在这个已经满目疮痍的国家实现稳定。这样的幻想是基于两种错误的假设:其一是尽管美国在伊拉克遭到了失败,但伊朗和叙利亚能够成功;其二是国际社会能够付出确保伊朗和叙利亚合作所必须的代价。

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