阿拉伯世界有可能实现民主吗?

随着伊拉克很快陷入血腥和混乱,美国和伊拉克临时政府在一月成功举行民主大选的承诺前景黯淡。有些持怀疑态度的人甚至更悲观,认为伊拉克政局的崩溃证明整个阿拉伯世界实现民主的希望渺茫。这样说对吗?

全世界有半数国家实现了民主,但22个阿拉伯国家却不在其中。联合国的《阿拉伯发展报告》直言不讳地批评了该地区的经济和社会发展。经济增长非常缓慢,文盲约占妇女总数的一半,经济状况也难以和世界接轨。实际上,尽管人口达3亿之众,阿拉伯国家除石油天然气外对世界的出口还比不上一个芬兰。

青年人在阿拉伯世界的人口统计表上数量激增,目前总人口的45%都在14岁以下,而后四分之一世纪的总人口数肯定会翻番。但阿拉伯地区的青年却缺乏有意义的就业机会,失业率长期在20%左右徘徊。与此同时,现代信息的大潮冲击着中东地区,其中不少都带有反西方的色彩。

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