¿Está el capitalismo condenado al fracaso?

NEW YORK – La masiva volatilidad y la aguda corrección de los precios de las acciones que en la actualidad golpean a los mercados financieros globales son indicadores de que las economías más avanzadas se encuentran al borde de una recesión de doble caída. Una crisis financiera y económica causada por el exceso de deuda y apalancamiento del sector privado condujeron a un masivo re-apalancamiento del sector público con el fin de evitar la Gran Depresión 2.0. Sin embargo, la recuperación posterior ha sido anémica y mediocre en la mayoría de las economías avanzadas dado el desapalancamiento doloroso.

Hoy en día una combinación de los precios altos del petróleo y productos básicos, los disturbios en el Oriente Medio, el terremoto y tsunami del Japón, la crisis de deuda de la eurozona y los problemas fiscales de Estados Unidos (y ahora la rebaja de su calificación crediticia) han llevado a un aumento masivo en la aversión al riesgo. Económicamente los Estados Unidos, la eurozona, el Reino Unido y el Japón funcionan al ralentí. Incluso los mercados emergentes en crecimiento (China, Asia emergente y América Latina), y las economías orientadas a la exportación que se basan en estos mercados (Alemania y Australia, un país rico en recursos naturales), están experimentando desaceleraciones agudas.

Hasta el año pasado, los políticos siempre pudieron sacar un as de bajo la manga para reactivar los precios de los activos y detonar la recuperación económica. Estímulo fiscal, tasas de interés de casi cero, dos rondas de "flexibilización cuantitativa", separación estricta de las deudas incobrables y billones de dólares en rescates y provisión de liquidez para los bancos y entidades financieras: las autoridades ejecutivas intentaron todo esto. Ahora se han quedado sin ases.

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