Dean Rohrer

Libia iraquí

GINEBRA – Cuando la Libia posterior a la revolución mira hacia delante, el Iraq se cierne como un ejemplo peligroso. Después de cuarenta y dos años de dictadura, Libia, como el Iraq en 2003 después de la caída de Sadam Husein, necesita algo más que ilusiones para llegar a ser una democracia sólida. Necesita una construcción del Estado organizada en Trípoli… y formulación de políticas realistas en las capitales occidentales.

Las transiciones logradas dependen desde el comienzo de factores que siguen faltando gravemente en Libia: unos dirigentes relativamente cohesionados, una sociedad civil activa y unidad nacional. Sin ellos, casi con toda probabilidad Libia carecerá de equilibrio y, en gran medida como el Iraq de Sadam Husein, sufrirá las consecuencias de la persistente división política y del desorden y la inestabilidad civiles, además de diversas presiones geopolíticas múltiples.

Para evitar ese resultado, se necesita un fuerte centro político, pero, desde el comienzo del levantamiento en febrero de 2011, Libia ha estado políticamente atomizada. Carece de la clase de sociedad civil que podría haber dirigido el levantamiento y haber plantado las semillas para una política postautoritaria, como ocurrió en Túnez y (más problemáticamente) en Egipto.

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