Dean Rohrer

Ливия иракского образца

ЖЕНЕВА. По мере того как Ливия после революции смотрит в будущее, Ирак принимает очертания опасного примера. После 42 лет диктатуры Ливия, как Ирак в 2003 году после падения режима Саддама Хусейна, нуждается в чем-то большем, чем мечты, чтобы стать жизнеспособной демократией. Она нуждается в организованном государственном строительстве в Триполи ‑ и реалистичной политике в столицах Запада.

Успешный переход с самого начала зависит от факторов, которых до сих пор существенно не хватает в Ливии ‑ относительно сплоченного руководства, активного гражданского общества и национального единства. Без этого Ливия, скорее всего, не сможет создать свою основу и, как Ирак после Саддама, будет страдать от постоянного политического разделения и изменчивых гражданских беспорядков в дополнение к многогранному массиву геополитического давления.

Избегание этого результата предполагает сильный политический центр. Но с самого начала восстания в феврале 2011 года Ливия была политически разобщенной. Ей не хватает гражданского общества, которое бы могло провести восстание и посеять семена для пост-авторитарной политики, как это было в Тунисе и (более проблематично) в Египте.

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