Comment défendre l'Irak divisé

OXFORD – Les États-Unis et leurs alliés font face à un nouveau défi politique majeur en Irak. Les frappes aériennes contre l'État islamique pourraient bien déloger les combattants du groupe dans certaines zones critiques. Mais en l'état actuel des choses, des troupes seront nécessaires pour tenir et gouverner les territoires libérés.

Sécuriser l'Irak implique donc un déploiement militaire impressionnant sur place : c'est pour cette raison que la stratégie du Président américain Barack Obama comprend la reconstruction de l'armée irakienne. Mais ce faisant, il faudra surmonter trois obstacles interdépendants : l'inexpérience militaire des chefs militaires irakiens, la corruption et le clientélisme et enfin l'ambiguïté quant à l'étendue de l'aide extérieure.

Lorsque des États s'effondrent, leurs éléments constitutifs héritent parfois de forces armées suffisamment compétentes pour maintenir un niveau minimal de gouvernance. Ceci est plus souvent le cas lorsqu'un État se décompose à la suite d'un conflit armé, dans lequel la stabilité dépend du cas de figure où les meilleurs chefs militaires sont autorisés à rester en place.

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