Irácká potěmkinovská vláda

Hlasovací lístky z prosincových voleb v Iráku již byly sečteny a úsilí o vytvoření nové vlády brzy nabere na intenzitě. Povzbudivé je, že obě strany podle všeho výsledky uznávají. Klíčová otázka týkající se budoucnosti země však přetrvává: sjednotí se šíité, sunnité a Kurdové pod funkční centrální autoritou?

V krátkodobém výhledu existují dobré důvody věřit, že ti nejmocnější mezi třemi hlavními iráckými skupinami tak učiní. Může však jakákoliv podobná vláda spravovat zemi jako celek? Odpověď na tuto otázku zřejmě zní záporně, což je také důvod, proč bude Irák od nynějška za rok pravděpodobně mnohem méně stabilní.

Jakmile se zformuje nová irácká vláda, bude v bezprostředním budoucnu přinejmenším jevit zdání životaschopnosti. Šíité mají zájem centrální vládu podporovat, protože se domnívají, že zastupitelská demokracie jim díky jejich demografické váze (tvoří 60% irácké populace) zaručí právo vládnout a ochrání je před sunnitskými požadavky a útoky.

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