El ataque preventivo de Irán

Los gobernantes de Irán, sumidos en peleas internas, han decidido con sus acciones rechazar el ofrecimiento de Europa y Estados Unidos de un reactor nuclear, repuestos de aeronaves, cooperación económica y otros beneficios a cambio de abandonar sus planes de producir uranio enriquecido. Muchos esperaban que, a pesar de su extremismo, lo aceptaran aunque sólo fuera evitar sanciones que con seguridad ocurrirán, incluso si China y Rusia se rehúsan a apoyarlas en el seno del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas. Estados Unidos y Europa están unidos en esta oportunidad, y tienen la capacidad de aislar al país del sistema bancario mundial, impedir que los gobernantes iraníes viajen a Occidente y detener las exportaciones a Irán de todo excepto alimentos y medicinas.

En lugar de esperar pasivamente a que se aplicaran sanciones, los líderes de Irán decidieron dar inicio a una crisis en el Oriente Medio, organizando ataques contra Israel. Su objetivo es evitar que EE.UU. y los europeos inicien otra crisis; en Europa, los mercados financieros y la política cotidiana pueden tolerar sólo un cierto nivel de conflicto. También puede que esperen destruir la posición unificada que en la actualidad existe entre EE.UU. y la UE.

Más aún, la intención de Irán de ejercer un liderazgo en el mundo musulmán se está viendo afectada por el conflicto en Irak, donde Irán apoya las milicias chiítas que matan sunnitas todos los días. Cada sangriento atentado con ejecuciones y bombazos en Irak recuerda a los árabes que los iraníes no son árabes ni sunnitas. Sin embargo, atacar a Israel une a los musulmanes y concita la gratitud del mundo árabe.

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