La frappe préemptive de l’Iran

Les dirigeants iraniens cherchent querelle. Ils ont décidé de rejeter par leurs actions la proposition de l’Europe et des Etats-Unis : un réacteur nucléaire, des pièces de rechange pour avions, un programme de coopération économique, et bien plus encore, en échange de la suspension du programme d’enrichissement de l’uranium. Beaucoup espéraient qu’ils accepteraient, malgré leur extrémisme, ne serait-ce que pour échapper aux sanctions, désormais inévitables même si la Chine et la Russie s’y opposent au Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies. Cette fois-ci, les Etats-Unis et l’Europe travaillent main dans la main, et ont les moyens d’exclure l’Iran du système bancaire international, d’empêcher les dirigeants iraniens de se rendre en Occident, et d’interrompre toutes les exportations – à l’exception des médicaments et de la nourriture - vers l’Iran.

Au lieu d’attendre passivement les sanctions, les dirigeants iraniens ont décidé de déclencher une crise au Proche-Orient, en organisant des attaques contre Israël. Ils visent ainsi à dissuader les Etats-Unis et l’Europe de provoquer une autre crise : les marchés financiers et la vie politique en Europe ne peuvent en effet tolérer qu’une certaine dose de conflits sur la scène internationale. Ils espèrent peut-être ébranler par la même occasion la bonne entente actuelle entre l’Union européenne et les Etats-Unis.

Autre point important, l’Iran se veut puissante dirigeante dans le monde musulman. Or ses ambitions sont menacées par le conflit en Irak, où l’Iran soutient les milices chiites qui assassinent des sunnites. Chaque journée sanglante, marquée par des attentats et des exécutions en Irak, rappelle aux Arabes que les Iraniens ne sont ni Arabes ni sunnites. En revanche, attaquer Israël est une façon d’unir les Musulmans et d’obtenir la gratitude des Arabes.

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