La stratégie électorale de l’Iran

WASHINGTON, DC – Les négociations relatives au programme nucléaire iranien se heurtent de nouveau à un mur, ce qui ne semble cependant pas préoccuper l’ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leader suprême du pays. En effet,  Khamenei apparaît convaincu que ni les États-Unis ni Israël n’attaquera ses installations nucléaires – du moins pas avant l’élection présidentielle américaine de novembre.

Ironiquement, bien que Khamenei ne soit pas un adepte de la démocratie, il profite du fait que ses principaux ennemis soient contraints par des considérations démocratiques. Khamenei contrôlant le programme nucléaire de l’Iran ainsi que la politique étrangère du pays, les États-Unis et Israël vont devoir travailler afin de parvenir à un consensus non seulement au sein de leur système politique respectif, mais également l’un avec l’autre.

Les dirigeants iraniens, qui suivent de très près les débats politiques israéliens, estiment qu’Israël ne saurait lancer l’assaut sur leurs installations nucléaires sans une pleine coopération de l’Amérique, dans la mesure où une intervention unilatérale menacerait les relations entretenues par Israël avec son allié stratégique le plus important. Compte tenu du fait qu’une offensive israélienne nécessiterait d’être coordonnée avec les États-Unis, tandis qu’une attaque américaine ne requerrait aucun soutien militaire israélien, l’Iran considèrerait les deux pans de cette alternative comme une attaque de la part des États-Unis.

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