伊朗的大选战略

华盛顿—伊朗和谈判再次陷入了瓶颈,但伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊似乎并不担心。事实上,哈梅内伊似乎已经认定美国和以色列都不会袭击伊朗的核设施,至少在11月美国大选前是如此。

讽刺的是,尽管哈梅内伊并不是民主派,但他却利用了其主要敌人被民主缚住了手脚的事实。哈梅内伊控制着伊朗的核计划和外交政策,但美国和以色列不但要在各自的政治制度内部形成一致,还必须在彼此之间消除分歧。

密切关注以色列政坛争论的伊朗领导人认为以色列不可能在没有美国全面合作的情况下袭击伊朗核设施,因为单边行动会影响以色列与其最重要战略盟友之间的关系。以色列的进攻必须有美国的合作,而美国的进攻并不需要以色列的军事支持,因此不管是以色列还是美国发动袭击,伊朗都会认为是美国干的。

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