obama iran press conference Ron Sachs/ZumaPress

Obamas Fehler in Bezug auf den Iran

JERUSALEM – Das Für und Wider des Abkommens mit dem Iran über das iranische Nuklearprogramm wird in den nächsten zwei Monaten – im Vorfeld der Abstimmung im Kongress über seine Ratifizierung – umfassend debattiert werden. Beurteilt werden allerdings wird der sogenannte gemeinsame umfassende Aktionsplan (JCPOF) anhand seiner Umsetzung, die Jahre erfordern wird.

Trotzdem sind schon jetzt zwei Dinge klar. Erstens sind die schwächsten Bestimmungen des JCPOA jene, die die Vertragseinhaltung und ihre Verifizierung betreffen. Sie sind zugleich umständlich formuliert und offen für konkurrierende Auslegungen; also ist eine gewisse Skepsis in Bezug auf die Umsetzung angebracht.

Zweitens – und dies ist von unmittelbarerer Bedeutung – wirkt sich allein schon der Abschluss einen Abkommens zwischen dem Iran und den fünf ständigen Mitgliedern des UN-Sicherheitsrates plus Deutschland (den P5+1) auf das regionale Gleichgewicht der Kräfte aus. Tatsächlich ist die Frage berechtigt, ob sich die Verhandlungsführer des Westens (und insbesondere der USA) der geopolitischen Auswirkungen des Deals bewusst waren.

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