obama iran press conference Ron Sachs/ZumaPress

أين أخطأ أوباما بشأن إيران

القدس ــ سوف تخضع إيجابيات وسلبيات الاتفاق مع إيران بشأن برنامجها النووي للمناقشة على نطاق واسع خلال الشهرين المقبلين، وهي الفترة التي سوف تسبق التصويت على الاتفاق في الكونجرس الأميركي. ولكن الحكم على ما يسمى "خطة العمل المشترك الشاملة" سوف يكون من خلال تنفيذها، وهو ما سوف يستغرق سنوات.

ولكن هناك أمرين واضحين رغم ذلك. الأول أن أضعف بنود خطة العمل المشتركة الشاملة ــ وهي مرهقة ومفتوحة لتفسيرات متنافسة ــ هي تلك التي تغطي الامتثال وسبل التحقق. لذا فإن بعض التشكك حول تنفيذها لن يكون في غير محله.

الأمر الثاني والأكثر مباشرة هو أن التوصل إلى اتفاق بين إيران والدول الخمس الدائمة العضوية في مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة بالإضافة إلى ألمانيا (مجموعة الخمسة + واحد) بدأ في حد ذاته يؤثر على توازن القوى في المنطقة. والواقع أنه من المشروع أن نتساءل ما إذا كان المفاوضون من الغرب (وخاصة الولايات المتحدة) مدركين للعواقب الجيوسياسية المترتبة على هذا الاتفاق.

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