Los nuevos vencedores y perdedores de Oriente Medio

BERLÍN – “La guerra”, dijo el antiguo filósofo griego Heráclito, “es el padre de todas las cosas”. En vista de los sangrientos –y en verdad bárbaros– acontecimientos habidos en Oriente Medio (y en el Iraq y en Siria en particular), podríamos sentir la tentación de convenir al respecto, aunque esas ideas parecen estar ya fuera de lugar en la concepción del mundo posmoderna de la Europa actual.

Los triunfos militares del Estado Islámico en el Iraq y en Siria no sólo están avivando una catástrofe en materia humanitaria, sino también sumiendo en el caos las alianzas existentes en esa región e incluso poniendo en tela de juicio las fronteras nacionales. Está surgiendo un nuevo Oriente Medio, que ya difiere del orden antiguo en dos sentidos importantes: un mayor papel para los kurdos y el Irán y una menor influencia de las potencias suníes de la región.

Oriente Medio no sólo afronta el posible triunfo de una fuerza que intenta alcanzar sus objetivos estratégicos mediante matanzas y esclavización en masa (por ejemplo, de las mujeres y las muchachas yazidíes). Lo que también está resultando patente es el desplome del antiguo orden de la región, que se había mantenido más o menos inalterable desde el fin de la primera guerra mundial y, con él, el declive de las potencias estabilizadoras tradicionales.

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