伊朗遭遇奥巴马

华盛顿—自从1979年伊斯兰革命以来,伊朗的强硬派领导层一直无情地把美国描绘成是种族主义者和在全世界压迫穆斯林的嗜血成性的霸权主义者。没有什么比一位非洲裔美国人的当选更能揭穿这种论调的了。奥巴马支持与伊朗进行对话,并且他的中间的姓名侯赛因也是什叶派伊斯兰族群里常见的一个姓氏。布什政府的政策经常促使伊朗国内观点相异的政治集团同仇敌忾。与此不同,奥巴马的当选将会使这个国家深层次的内部分歧变得更加突出。

尽管偏执的保守派现在牢牢地控制着伊朗政府,政治精英中的温和派和改革派正在休眠但是并未死亡,他们可能会随着奥巴马的胜利而复活。他们被强硬派赶出了权力舞台,因为强硬派利用这个国家对安全神经过敏的感觉作为操纵选举、压制持不同政见者以及倒转政治和社会改革的借口。数万美军屯兵邻国使这种感觉变得更加强烈。但是当内贾德在2009年6月谋求连任时改革派很有可能对他发起强有力的挑战。

伊朗的年轻人是中东地区反美情绪最低的。对于他们来说,这意味着现在重新有了与美国和解的希望,而这在布什当政期间似乎是不可能做到的。尽管公众中间依然有人怀疑美国的政策,还是有相当一部分伊朗民众认识到如果他们的国家与美国依然保持敌对关系,那它将永远无法走出孤立的态势或者充满发挥它巨大的潜力。在过去数年一直被排除在外和破灭了理想的伊朗民众一定会重新出现在政治舞台上。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/dtKkDMD/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.