伊朗遭遇奥巴马

华盛顿—自从1979年伊斯兰革命以来,伊朗的强硬派领导层一直无情地把美国描绘成是种族主义者和在全世界压迫穆斯林的嗜血成性的霸权主义者。没有什么比一位非洲裔美国人的当选更能揭穿这种论调的了。奥巴马支持与伊朗进行对话,并且他的中间的姓名侯赛因也是什叶派伊斯兰族群里常见的一个姓氏。布什政府的政策经常促使伊朗国内观点相异的政治集团同仇敌忾。与此不同,奥巴马的当选将会使这个国家深层次的内部分歧变得更加突出。

尽管偏执的保守派现在牢牢地控制着伊朗政府,政治精英中的温和派和改革派正在休眠但是并未死亡,他们可能会随着奥巴马的胜利而复活。他们被强硬派赶出了权力舞台,因为强硬派利用这个国家对安全神经过敏的感觉作为操纵选举、压制持不同政见者以及倒转政治和社会改革的借口。数万美军屯兵邻国使这种感觉变得更加强烈。但是当内贾德在2009年6月谋求连任时改革派很有可能对他发起强有力的挑战。

伊朗的年轻人是中东地区反美情绪最低的。对于他们来说,这意味着现在重新有了与美国和解的希望,而这在布什当政期间似乎是不可能做到的。尽管公众中间依然有人怀疑美国的政策,还是有相当一部分伊朗民众认识到如果他们的国家与美国依然保持敌对关系,那它将永远无法走出孤立的态势或者充满发挥它巨大的潜力。在过去数年一直被排除在外和破灭了理想的伊朗民众一定会重新出现在政治舞台上。

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