Sueños ligeros y dorados

CAMBRIDGE – En principio, adquirir y guardar oro es una forma de asegurarse frente a la guerra, el Apocalipsis financiero y la completa devaluación de las monedas. Desde el inicio de la crisis financiera global, a menudo se ha visto el precio del oro como un barómetro de la inseguridad económica mundial. ¿Significa entonces el colapso de sus precios (desde un pico de $1.900 por onza en agosto de 2011 a cerca de $1.250 a comienzos de julio de 2013) un voto de confianza en la economía global?

Decir que el mercado del oro muestra todas las características básicas de una burbuja que finalmente acaba por estallar es simplificar demasiado las cosas. No hay dudas de que el constante ascenso de su valor, desde cerca de $350 la onza en julio de 2003, hizo agua la boca de los inversionistas. Y si sigue aumentando, sería porque todos se han convencido de que mañana va a subir todavía más.

Doctores y dentistas comenzaron a vender acciones y comprar monedas de oro. La demanda de joyas de oro en India y China se fue a las nubes. Los bancos centrales de mercados emergentes diversificaron sus carteras, reduciendo los dólares y aumentando el oro.

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