Sogni d'oro

CAMBRIDGE – In linea di principio, l'oro rappresenta una forma di assicurazione contro guerre, apocalissi finanziarie e svalutazione della moneta all'ingrosso e, fin dall'inizio della crisi finanziaria, la sua quotazione è stata spesso considerata come un barometro dell'insicurezza economica globale. Dunque, questo vuol dire che il crollo del prezzo dell'oro – da un picco di 1.900 dollari l'oncia nell'agosto 2011 a meno di 1.250 nel luglio di quest’anno – rappresenta un segno di fiducia nell'economia globale?

Dire che il mercato dell'oro mostra tutte le caratteristiche di una bolla scoppiata equivale a semplificare troppo. Senza dubbio, l'inebriante ascesa del metallo giallo dalla quotazione di circa 350 dollari l'oncia nel luglio 2003 ha mandato in visibilio gli investitori. L’aumento giornaliero dipendeva dal fatto che tutti erano convinti che il giorno dopo il prezzo sarebbe salito ancora.

Medici e dentisti hanno iniziato a vendere azioni e ad acquistare monete d'oro; in India e in Cina la domanda di gioielli in oro è salita alle stelle, mentre le banche centrali dei mercati emergenti hanno diversificato gli investimenti abbandonando il dollaro per l'oro.

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