Intégrer le Maghreb

RABAT – La « révolution du jasmin » en Tunisie a souligné les conséquences liées aux économies stagnantes et au chômage endémique des jeunes pour les régimes autoritaires de la région. Un autre facteur moins remarqué contribue au malaise : l’incapacité des pays du Maghreb – l’Algérie, la Libye, la Mauritanie, le Maroc et la Tunisie – à développer leur coopération économique.

En fait, l’Union du Maghreb arabe estime que le manque d’intégration régionale coûte à chaque pays deux points de pourcentage de croissance annuelle du PIB. De son côté, la Commission économique pour l’Afrique des Nations unies a évalué que dans l’éventualité d’un Maghreb unifié, chacun des cinq pays de la région connaîtrait une croissance de 5 pour cent de son PIB. Et la Banque mondiale a calculé qu’une meilleure intégration, comprenant une libéralisation des services et la réforme des lois sur l’investissement, entraînerait une progression de 34 pour cent du PIB réel par tête pour l’Algérie, de 27 pour cent pour le Maroc et de 24 pour cent pour la Tunisie.

Les pays de la région ne peuvent plus se permettre d’attendre. Si leurs taux de croissance restent identiques à ceux des cinq dernières années, il leur faudra plus de deux décennies pour atteindre le revenu par tête actuel du Mexique et de la Turquie, d’autres  pays moins riches membres de l’OCDE.

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