La Cina è in grado di essere flessibile?

SHANGHAI – Le “due riunioni tradizionali” della Cina, ovvero i raduni annuali del Congresso Nazionale del Popolo e la Conferenza politica consultiva del popolo che si svolgono a marzo, hanno sempre attirato l’attenzione globale. Ma gli incontri di quest’anno sembrano essere particolarmente importanti non solo per la transizione della leadership del paese, ma anche per il rallentamento economico in un contesto che chiede a gran voce riforme più profonde. Quale sarà quindi la risposta dei leader cinesi?

Il problema è semplice. Nessuno può prevedere in dettaglio quanto durerà il rallentamento. Le autorità, vista la mancanza di fiducia nelle proprie capacità di ripristinare il livello dei tassi precedenti al 2009 della crescita annuale del PIL, hanno ridotto il target ufficiale al 7,5%.

Molti economisti stanno diventando ancor più pessimisti e indicano il Giappone come testimonianza del fatto che, dopo trent’anni, la crescita rapida della Cina potrebbe finire. L’economia del Giappone, sottolineano gli stessi economisti, è riuscita a mantenere più di vent’anni di crescita rapida sostenuta, ma nei quarant’anni successivi al 1973 la crescita annuale ha superato solo poche volte il 5%, mentre la produzione è rimasta stangante per gli ultimi vent’anni.

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