Les spectateurs innocents

SANTIAGO – Prenez un taxi aujourd’hui à São Paulo et vous ferez l’expérience de la circulation chaotique et des rues peu entretenues d’une métropole d’un pays émergent. Mais au moment de payer la course, vous vous sentirez davantage à Boston, Luxembourg ou Zürich : le real brésilien, comme les devises de nombreux pays émergents, est au plus haut – et pourrait continuer à s’apprécier.

Les devises fortes font les pays forts, aimait à dire un politicien américain. Mais de nombreux exportateurs des pays émergents, peinant à conserver leurs clients sur les marchés anémiques américain et européen, ont un autre avis à ce sujet.

Pendant des décennies, les pays en développement ont rêvé d’un paradis de prix très élevés des matières premières et de taux d’intérêt internationaux au plancher. Mais les ministres des Finances à Lima, Bogota, Pretoria ou Djakarta auraient peut-être dû être plus prudents dans leurs attentes. Quel est le problème ? Un flux massif de capitaux à court terme en provenance des pays avancés, dont la croissance est faible et les taux d’intérêt au plus bas.

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