El nuevo aspecto político de la revolución de la información

NUEVA DELHI – Durante el segundo aniversario de la “Primavera Árabe” en Egipto, la Plaza Tahrir fue escenario de disturbios que hicieron a muchos observadores temer que sus previsiones optimistas de 2011 estuvieran totalmente erradas. El problema se debe, en parte, a haber descrito los acontecimientos con una metáfora de corto plazo que alentó expectativas distorsionadas. Si en vez de “Primavera Árabe” hubiéramos hablado entonces de “revoluciones árabes”, tal vez nuestras expectativas hubieran sido más realistas: una revolución no es un acontecimiento que dure una estación o algunos años, es algo cuyo desarrollo demanda décadas.

Tomemos como ejemplo la Revolución Francesa, que empezó en 1789. ¿Quién hubiera predicho que menos de una década después, un ignoto soldado corso conduciría a los ejércitos franceses a las riberas del Nilo, o que las Guerras Napoleónicas convulsionarían Europa hasta 1815?

Las revoluciones árabes todavía pueden darnos muchas sorpresas. Hasta ahora, la mayoría de las monarquías árabes tuvieron suficiente legitimidad, dinero y poder para sobrevivir a las oleadas de revueltas populares que derribaron autocracias republicanas seculares como la de Hosni Mubarak en Egipto y la de Muamar el Gadafi en Libia, pero este proceso revolucionario apenas lleva dos años.

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