Paul Lachine

¿Inflación o deflación?

CAMBRIDGE – Los inversores con los que hablo en estos días no saben si preocuparse más por la inflación futura en los Estados Unidos o por la deflación futura. La buena noticia es la de que la respuesta –al menos durantes los próximos años– es la de que los inversores no deben preocuparse por “ninguna de las dos”.

La alta tasa de desempleo de los Estados Unidos y las bajas tasas de utilización de la capacidad entrañan poca presión en los salarios y los precios de ese país y la reciente apreciación del dólar respecto del euro y la libra esterlina contribuye a la reducción de los costos de las importaciones.

Quienes insisten en el riesgo de inflación señalan con frecuencia al enorme déficit presupuestario de los Estados Unidos. Según la proyección de la Oficina Presupuestaria del Congreso, el déficit fiscal del país ascenderá al cinco por ciento del PIB, por término medio, durante el resto de este decenio, lo que aumentará la deuda gubernamental al 90 por ciento del PIB, frente a menos del 60 por ciento del PIB en 2009. Aunque esos dos grandes déficits serán un problema importante para la economía de los EE.UU., si no se hace nada para reducirlos, no tienen por qué ser inflacionarios.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now