Paul Lachine

L’inflation, un moindre mal pour résoudre la crise

CAMBRIDGE – Il est temps pour les grandes banques centrales d’admettre qu’une soudaine flambée d’inflation modérée serait extrêmement utile pour sortir de cet incroyable bourbier de dettes.

Certes, l’inflation est un moyen injuste d’amortir efficacement l’ensemble des dettes non indexées dans l’économie. L’inflation des prix force les créanciers accepter des remboursements dans une monnaie dévaluée. Certes, en principe, il devrait toujours être possible de remédier aux problèmes du système financier sans recourir à l’inflation. Malheureusement, plus on s’intéresse de près aux autres solutions, notamment à l’injection de liquidités dans les banques et aux aides directes aux emprunteurs immobiliers, plus il devient évident que l’inflation serait plus une aide qu’une gêne.

La finance moderne a réussi à créer une dynamique de non-remboursement d’une complexité si stupéfiante qu’elle brave les méthodes habituelles de renégociation des dettes. La titrisation, la gestion structurée et d’autres innovations ont tellement lié les différents acteurs du système financier qu’il est quasiment impossible de restructurer une seule institution financière à la fois. Des solutions à l’échelle du système sont donc nécessaires.

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