India se Acerca al Escenario Principal de la Economía Mundial

CAMBRIDGE: Hace veinte años, China dio término a varias décadas de aislamiento económico autoimpuesto y cambió la forma de la economía global. El otro gigante demógrafico del mundo, la India, empezó sus propias reformas ecónomicas diez años después. En este país, las reformas se han llevado a cabo de manera más gradual, al inicio sus efectos fueron menos dramáticos, pero casi una década después también la India está logrando un avance histórico. Es muy posible que en estos primeros diez años del siglo XXI veamos incrementarse su ingreso per cápita al doble y descubramos que su papel en la economía mundial gana importancia a pasos agigantados.

Con mil millones de personas (la sexta parte de la población mundial) repartidas a traves de un subcontinente muy diverso, en el cual se pueden encontrar desde los Himalayas hasta desiertos, valles fértiles y grandes ciudades costeras, todo acerca de la India está más allá de poder ser generalizado. Es un país en el que la economía abarca desde la tecnología informática (sector al que contribuye con algunos de los mejores ingenieros y programadores a nivel mundial) hasta una pobreza rural casi sin rival. Pero a pesar de tal diversidad, se pueden observar algunas tendencias:

• La India aceleró su crecimiento económico realizando reformas de mercado al inicio de los años noventa. Después de mantenerse en un crecimiento anual de aproximadamente 3.5 % durante décadas, del cual 2 % o más era absorbido por el crecimiento demográfico, ahora disfruta de un crecimiento anual de 6 %, del cual menos del 2 % es anulado por el crecimiento demográfico. Haciendo más reformas, su crecimiento económico anual podría llegar al 9 %, lo cual incrementaría el ingreso per cápita a un ritmo de 7 % anual, aproximadamente, suficiente para duplicar dicho ingreso en un periodo de diez años.

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