¿India o China?

NUEVA DELHI – Cuando el presidente norteamericano, Barack Obama, visitó la India en noviembre y elogió a sus líderes por el creciente éxito y proeza de su economía, una pregunta tácita regresó al escenario central: ¿China crecerá indefinidamente más rápido que la India o la India en poco tiempo la superará?

De hecho, esta rivalidad se remonta a 1947, cuando la India logró la independencia y la democracia se convirtió en la característica distintiva del país, mientras que China regresó al comunismo con la victoria de Mao Tse Tung después del Largo Marzo. Se esperaba que ambos países, los “gigantes dormidos”, despertaran en algún momento de su sueño. Pero, como el modelo de crecimiento de moda en aquellos días ponía el énfasis principal en la acumulación de capital, China corría con amplia ventaja porque podía aumentar su tasa de inversión más que la India, donde la democracia ponía límites a la hora de gravar a la población para aumentar los ahorros domésticos.

Sin embargo, tal como sucedieron las cosas, ambos gigantes siguieron dormidos –hasta los años 1980 en China y principios de los años 1990 en la India-, principalmente porque ambos países abrazaron un marco de políticas contraproducentes que afectaron la productividad de sus esfuerzos de inversión.

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