L’India o la Cina?

NUOVA DELHI – A seguito della visita in India a novembre del Presidente americano Barack Obama, che si è congratulato in quell’occasione con i leader del paese per il crescente successo e la capacità acquisita nell’economia, una domanda tacita è tornata al centro dell’attenzione: la Cina crescerà più rapidamente dell’India a tempo indefinito o verrà presto superata?

Questa competizione si può in realtà ricondurre al 1947, anno dell’indipendenza dell’India e contesto in cui la democrazia divenne una caratteristica definitoria del paese, al contrario della Cina che apriva invece le porte al comunismo con il successo di Mao Zedong dopo il Marzo lungo. In base alle aspettative, entrambi i paesi, denominati “i giganti dormienti”, si sarebbero prima o poi risvegliati dal loro sonno. Ma dato che il modello di crescita in voga al tempo era incentrato sull’accumulo di capitale, si è da sempre ritenuto che la Cina avesse un grande vantaggio avendo infatti una maggiore possibilità di aumentare il tasso di investimento rispetto all’India dove la democrazia imponeva un limite di tassazione sui contribuenti allo scopo di aumentare i risparmi domestici.

Il caso ha voluto che i due giganti continuassero a dormire, la Cina fino agli anni ’80 e l’India fino agli anni ’90, principalmente perché entrambi avevano optato per una politica controproducente che ha finito per danneggiare la produttività degli sforzi sugli investimenti.

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