Farmers in a field Brazil Photos | getty images

Wirtschaftspolitik in Zeiten politischer Instabilität

MAILAND/STANFORD – In den letzten 35 Jahren verzeichnen westliche Demokratien einen rasanten Anstieg politischer Instabilität, die sich in häufigen Regierungswechseln ebenso äußerte wie in unterschiedlichen Programmen und Philosophien der jeweiligen Regierungsparteien. Zumindest teilweise war dies wirtschaftlichen Umwälzungen und ökonomischen Härten geschuldet. Die Frage lautet nun, wie man die Wirtschaftsleistung in jenen Zeiten verbessern kann, da politische Instabilität wirksame politische Entscheidungsfindung beeinträchtigt.

In einem jüngst erschienenen Artikel zeigt ein Kollege (David Brady) den Zusammenhang zwischen steigender politischer Instabilität und abnehmender Wirtschaftsleistung auf, wobei er darauf hinweist, dass es in Ländern mit unterdurchschnittlicher Wirtschaftsleistung die stärksten Schwankungen im Wahlverhalten der Bürger gibt. Genauer gesagt geht eine derartige Instabilität in den entwickelten Ländern mit einem Rückgang der Beschäftigung in den Bereichen Industrie und Produktion einher. Obwohl dieser Rückgang in den Ländern unterschiedliche Ausmaße annimmt – in Deutschland fiel er beispielsweise weniger drastisch aus als in den Vereinigten Staaten – ist das Muster doch ziemlich allgegenwärtig.

Vor allem im Laufe der letzten 15 Jahre ermöglichten zunehmend leistungsstarke digitale Technologien die Automatisierung und Disintermediation von „Routinejobs“ im Arbeiter- und Angestelltenbereich. Aufgrund der Fortschritte in Robotik, Materialwesen, 3-D-Druck und künstlicher Intelligenz ist davon auszugehen, dass die Zahl der potenziell zu automatisierenden „Routinejobs“ noch weiter zunehmen wird.

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