Christine Legarde Thierry Monasse/ZumaPress

IMF在希腊问题上的“艰难选择”

雅典—国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家奥利佛·布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)最近提出了一个简单而重要的问题:“希腊应该做出多大调整,它的官方债权人又应该做出多大调整?”但这引出了另外两个问题:希腊做出了多大的调整?它的债权人给予过任何东西吗?

2010年5月,下列政府同意在2010—2013年做出相当于GDP的16%的财政调整。结果,希腊从超GDP的10%的初级预算赤字(不含债务利息支付)变为去年超GDP的10%的初级预算盈余——到目前为止,这是危机后时期欧洲最大幅度的改善。

IMF一开始预计希腊真实(经通胀调整的)GDP将在2010—2011年间收缩5%左右,在2012年稳定下来,并在此后开始增长。事实上,GDP下降了25%,并且从未复苏。而由于2014年名义GDP继续下降,本应在三年前就稳定下来的债务/GDP之比还在继续上升。

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