Economics

صندوق النقد الدولي و"الخيارات الصعبة" بشأن اليونان

Jun 16, 2015 James K. Galbraith

أثينا ــ مؤخرا، طَرَح كبير خبراء الاقتصاد لدى صندوق النقد الدولي، أوليفييه بلانشار، سؤالاً بسيطاً ومهما: "ما هو حجم التعديل والتكيف المطلوب من اليونان، والمطلوب من دائنيها الرسميين؟" ولكن هذا السؤال يثير تساؤلين آخرين: ما هو حجم التعديل الذي نفذته اليونان بالفعل؟ وهل قَدَّم دائنوها أي شيء على الإطلاق؟

في شهر مايو/أيار من عام 2010، وافقت الحكومة اليونانية على ضبط الأوضاع المالية بما يعادل 16% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الفترة من 2010 إلى 2013. ونتيجة لهذا، انتقلت اليونان من عجز الميزانية الأولية (الذي يستبعد أقساط الفائدة على الدين) الذي تجاوز 10% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي إلى توازن أولي في العام الماضي ــ وهو أكبر ارتداد من هذا القبيل في أوروبا في مرحلة ما بعد الأزمة.

في مستهل الأمر توقع صندوق النقد الدولي أن ينكمش الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي (المعدل تبعاً للتضخم) في اليونان بنحو 5% على مدى الفترة 2010-2011، ثم يستقر في عام 2012، وينمو بعد ذلك. والواقع أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي انخفض بنسبة 25% ولم يتعاف. ولأن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الاسمي انخفض في عام 2014 ولا يزال مستمراً في الهبوط، فإن نسبة الدين إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، التي كان من المفترض أن تستقر قبل ثلاث سنوات، مستمرة في الارتفاع.

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James K. Galbraith

Writing for PS since 2015
32 Commentaries

James K. Galbraith, Professor of Government and Chair in Government/Business Relations at the University of Texas at Austin, is a former staff economist for the House Banking Committee and a former executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. From 1993-97, he served as chief technical adviser for macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission. He is the author of Inequality: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016) and Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe (Yale University Press, 2016).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 27 Comments on this article

philip meguire Jul 7, 2015

Since 2007, the real per capita GDP of Greece has fallen 25%. For Greece, the GFC has been another Great Depression. The paramount objective should be getting the Greek real output back to where it was 10 years ago.

Greece should declare a unilateral moratorium on its debt held by foreigners, and accept the consequences of that moratorium, which probably include Grexit and having to pay cash in advance for its imports.
When the Greek economy has recovered from its Depression, it should make a unilateral offer to its foreign creditors amounting to a stream of installments Greece believes it can afford, in exchange for its creditors agreeing to wave all outstanding debts. The IMF and ECB can take it or leave it.

An OECD study 3-4 years ago concluded that the least viable public old age pension scheme in the OECD was Greece's. The OECD operationalised viability by the actuarial present value of the pension liabilities of the state, divided by the nation's nominal GDP. The Greek value of this ratio far exceeded the comparable ratio for any other OECD nation (the most viable public old age pension schemes were Mexico's, Ireland's and the USA's). There is no hope for Greece until it ceases to be an outlier on this metric. I would begin by putting a ceiling on the annual pension amount. The resulting haircut would not make the aged poor any poorer. Greece simply cannot afford to emulate the northern European social democracies.
I have no idea why all of Mediterranean Europe has performed very poorly this century, even France and Slovenia. I suspect that the whole region was not Euro-ready. The only nation to experience strong growth in this region has been Turkey, albeit from a low starting level.
In 1998, a fellow who was in grad school with me told me that in his opinion, the Euro was doomed to fail, because it took away a nation's option to escape an economic crisis by letting its currency devalue. I now suspect that he was right, and the Euro idealists were wrong. Here in New Zealand, the NZ$ has devalued 25% over the past 12 months, vis a vis the US$. If New Zealand had adopted the US$, its economy would now be in grave crisis.
- philip meguire Jul 7, 2015
  
  I do not believe in forcing austerity on a nation that clearly does not want it. And that nation states retain the option of defaulting on all or part of their sovereign debt held by foreigners. Of course, a nation that opts to do any of this may have further credit cut off. I happen to believe that closing the option of borrowing from foreigners, and having its own currency, will force Greece to live within its means and to bear the entire economic consequences of its public policy choices. Right now, Greece is sorely tempted to privatise any gains resulting from its public policy gambles, and to try to socialise any resulting losses. This will inevitably mean that Greece has the optio of making bets, with Eurozone taxpayers covering the cost of those bets if Greek GDP does not grown. The moral hazard is immense.
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Athanasios Rigas Jun 24, 2015

The author is quite correct in his assessment. Anyone who lives or has spent some time in Greece during these troubled times will attest to the futility of the IMF's position vis-à-vis that country. One does not to be an economist to realise that taking more money out of the economy will inevitably result in lower tax revenues - for a start - as people strive to reduce the drain on their purse. But then, IMF has a long tradition of failures in terms of the human cost its remote "experts" have been inflicting on those countries unfortunate enough to fall into its clutches. Lagarde's recently adopted position is scandalous and stinks of hidden agendas, well outside her organisation's remit. The Greek government and parliament must stand firm, respect their red lines and back the Greek people to the bitter end. The tragicomic thing is that a Grexit is likely to cost the rest of the world much more than a reasonable write-off of the country's debt. Unless this mess is sorted out to amicably and with equanimity the consequences will be unpredictable, especially from a nation that will feel rejected and humiliated. Greeks have a tradition of bringing the house down on themselves and their foes. And then nobody will be going laughing and singing all the way to the bank.
A Rigas
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atul baride Jun 23, 2015

Some Curse ' Greece ' and Many think its being a State that spent more than it earned. Inspite being in this position, Greece is far up in global Standards and much up than Asians. It Seems it is facing the ' ire ' of IMF and Germany. And the World has gone full circle from 1946 .
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Eusebio Manuel Vestias pecurto vestias Jun 23, 2015

We must face the reality Greece is a failed state and will create more debt in the future for growth within the Eurozone Best option is to go back to the beginning and create their growth with its original currency Good Luck Greece
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Robert Lunn Jun 22, 2015

Can you imagine the IMF applying these methods in the past? Sure, the average person took it on the chin in the Asian,Mexico debt deals for example. But they had sense enough to obfuscate things better.
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Dean Mitchener Jun 22, 2015

Totally agree! When the status quo is in disarray its time to think again, change tack and move forward. Flogging a dead horse rarely does any good - unless perhaps to tender the meat for pies; but even then only a very few can deal with the idea although many more could eat it and never know the difference! Such is it with this type of debt.
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Todd Clay Jun 21, 2015

We should've put the IMF out of business before this whole financially mess. It was already headed for it's own bankruptcy and maybe partially behind the whole market collapse to prove it's so-called value to the world.
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Todd Clay Jun 21, 2015

Huh, Reaganomics didn't work in Greece either? It's hard to comprehend.
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robert mcdowell Jun 21, 2015

Greece has been subjected to false assurances by the EU when it was fast growing and no concern expressed about its current account imbalance that grew to a 16% ratio to GDP trade deficit before the sovereign debt crisis that kicked off January 2010). Internally, the Bank of Greece sought from 2003 and 2005 onwards to stop the commercial banks from continuing to grow mortgage lending while not growing, but shrinking, lending to industry. The banks arrogantly ignored the Central Bank and there was no strong supporting advice from the ECB or others.
As James rightly points out the Troika (IMF/ Commission - really Germany - / ECB) plus Eurostat macroeconomic diagnosis and forecasts have been proved not slightly wrong but spectacularly wrong. Their models are obviously idiotically naive, very two-dimensional, merely intuitive.
Greece is not short of every competent economists, but Greece's own expertise in macroeconomic planning and forecasting has been rudely ignored.
Greece's horrendous circumstances are testimony to failed political-economics at EU institutional level far more than testimony to structural problems in Greece.
The Troika should be shamed into paying for its errors, but instead we have problems of pride, fear of losing face, and a politics hoisted on its own petard of indulging populist opinions, both in Greece and externally.
It is appalling to on the one hand save the banks for the sake of the general economy and people while on the other hand crucifying the general economy and people for the sake of maintaining unrealistically inflexible narrow-minded rules.
This is a brutalism that risks destroying the European Project founded on convergence between member states to be replaced by divergence and encouraging more extreme imbalances within the EU. The sacrifice of Greece may prove in the longer run to be a sacrifice of Europe's internationalism and thereby damaging internationalism in every region of the world where they have hitherto looked to the example of Europe for the way forward!
- Dean Mitchener Jun 22, 2015
  
  Agree.
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Marco Saba Jun 21, 2015

Who are the (secret) owners of the Bank of Greece ? Did you have the listing ?
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Eusebio Manuel Vestias pecurto vestias Jun 21, 2015

European society has been hampered by the bad policy choices´m sorry what this happening in Greece will have to abide by the watering of Monetary Union and by the end of the agreements with the Russian Federation is not Greek army will have to clean the aircraft Russian I agree with the ideology of social and sustainable European Federalism liberal Democratic seriously
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Leo Kolivakis Jun 19, 2015

My weekend comment on whether investors should prepare for Graccident:

http://pensionpulse.blogspot.ca/2015/06/prepare-for-graccident.html

Best regards,

Leo Kolivakis

Publisher of Pension Pulse blog.
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Leo Kolivakis Jun 18, 2015

My latest on Greece's pension paradox:

http://pensionpulse.blogspot.ca/2015/06/greeces-pension-paradox.html

Best regards,

Leo Kolivakis

Publisher of Pension Pulse blog.
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Alexandros Liakopoulos Jun 18, 2015

Well said, Professor. Unfortunately, Greece pays the role of the scape-goat while the new authoritarians of today impose what Maurice Joly was describing as "Machiavellian Politics of Louie Bonaparte in the 19th century", in his "Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu" (link below), and especially the chapter on "debts and economy". IMF on its part have become another face for "absolute power", so the real absolute power cannot be blamed but instead can hide its politics behind and international mask. For what that matter, Professor Roumeliotis - former representative of Greece to IMF and ex vice president of the organisation's department dealing with execution, while speaking to the "Commission of Truth for the Debt" (#‎Epitroph_Alh8eias‬) three days ago, said that former IMF president Stros Kan was in early 2010 pushing former Prime Minister of Greece Giorgos Papandreou and France and Germany to accept an early "haircut" to the public debt, up to 30-40%, which would more or less hurt the private lenders of Greece, namely French and Germans and Greek banks, more than it would hurt the Greek State of Greek people. There were even meetings in Washington for that to happen, but representatives of the French and German governments refused to do so, representing their banks insterests and their nationalistic agendas instead of the European treaties and their public interest, for what that matters. Greek Prime Minister also refused to accept that proposal, saying he could not sustain the political cost and then facing an indirect coup-d-etat that moved him out of office and put in office then non-elected former president of the National Bank of Greece. Well, in this reality, Stros Kan was arrested and discredited, that effort went to the garbage, banks imposed their solutions, the Franco-German Axis pushed them further and new IMF leadership put its stamp and galvanized it, so the debts of the banks may be transfered to the Greek people, their losses get socialized and their gains get privatized. European social and political cohesion was destroyed and new absolute power became the "resort of last instance" for all "small and unprotected nations of the European continent and the South at large", Euro came to parity with dollar and European unification process became a means for a Germanized Europe, instead for a Europeanized Germany, as it was till that time. Who gains and who loses big time over this strategic handling of the American collapse of 2006-2008, whose aftermath was the spill-over effect that transfered the "crisis' to the European South and then the whole EU? This is the question.

To bring it to a close, one should consider the main facts I would sa. That is that the world public debt is about 61 trillion, from which G7 owns about 38 trillion and the rest 189 of the 196 countries of the world about 23 trillion. Greece owns about 0,0036% of that amount, while USA owns 18/61 (about 1/3,5), Japan 10/61 and so forth. And instead of talking about a world restructuring of the public debt, we talk about Greece its non-sense politics, its corrupted leadership that accepted that deal, etc, etc. Who created the crisis in the first place and for what purpose, what was its scope and for what reason if not to become the one and only "absolute power" of the 21st century, as "Bonaparte the Little" (as Ougho called him) once did?

Great analysis of yours but for strategic situations as the one occuring over Greece, strategic analysis is a prerequisite, as it has to beggin with the fact that economic means are only one of the three main dimensions of the "real power" of the power holders, with propaganda and arms fulfilling the "wholly trinity", as Bertrand Russell could, or would, say.

Here is the link, check on debts and economy, it most accurately describes what is really happening I strongly believe. And keep up the Great Great Work - Science with a Philosphical and Social Perspective is what separates us from a new Dark Age of the New Absolutists of our Metamodern World, these machinized people who beyond logic, harmony and "metro" put their money on artificial intelligence while transforming human intelligence to "instrumentum vocale" (as the slaves were called in the time of Romans) or destroying it all together, or both!

http://www.notbored.org/dialogue-in-hell.html
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M M Jun 17, 2015

US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has, a short while ago, given the most explicit warning ever made by a serious politician on the Greek crisis, whilst the EU/EZ leaders are still bickering. I shall rest my case.
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Paul Daley Jun 17, 2015

This amounts to blaming the troops for the general's mistakes. The IMF board -- dominated by European members -- steered the IMF towards imprudent commitments in Greece. IMF staff could have been stronger, but the IMF's outdated governance exposes the whole institution to manipulation.
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Michael Public Jun 17, 2015

Many others have been saying the same, but no-one has said it as clearly and in layman's language as you have here. More articles like this please on Project Syndicate.
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Mark Stannis Jun 16, 2015

I think that IMF tried to convince everybody of the fiction that after a (massive) debt restructuring, Greece could cut its deficits and be fine on its own. Obviously cutting their deficit was going to hurt.

But think of the alternative. Let's say that a couple of years the IMF said that Greece needed a debt restructuring and additional funding for years and years to come. A debt write-off plus running yearly deficits means that Greece would in fact get yearly subsidies from other European countries, something that was never gonna fly because Greece has also been caught cheating with its debts and there are many countries that are a lot poorer than Greece. Greece could have left the euro zone at that point but it didn't. Nothing the IMF could have done about it so insisting that everything was solved was the best thing at the time and it might even have worked.

And now we're back where we started again. Greece wants to run get a debt reduction and run a deficit. Yes it runs a slight primary surplus but running a slight primary surplus while getting a heavily subsidized loan is still running a deficit and getting a subsidy from other euro countries in my book. You're not making ends meet if you only have leftover money BEFORE paying for your car loan. Greece can not expect to default again (restructuring is a more pleasant word but it's not that different) and expect more loans because nobody will be able to pretend that it's not just asking for another handout.

Greece should just leave the EU so we can finally put this farce to rest. The ECB will buy the debts that European countries issued to subsidize Greece and there will be some pleasant fiction on how eventually Greece will repay the euros it borrowed.

But Greece has to make the choice itself so all the institutions can do is rule out more loans to Greece. In the mean people can complain about the IMF not being truthful but it's not IMF's job to be truthful.
- Mark Stannis Jun 18, 2015
  
  I don't believe myself to be polite, but I am telling it the way it is. The unemployment in Greece is high because Greece shouldn't be in a monetary union with the rest of Europe. Maybe a lot of countries shouldn't be. But that's beside the point.
  
  What is the point is that Greece even now has enough money to feed everybody. It is a rich enough country and it has that choice. But rather than that it chooses not to enforce tax rules, scare away businesses through red tape and corruption, give away all sort of goodies to (well-paying) interest groups, use the last bit of funding to provide some half-assed social protection and then blame all the misery on foreigners.
  
  As a northern European who supports both our less fortunate people and yours, I'm getting tired of your unwillingness to put your country in a sound footing, your inability to take proper care of your people, and your endless guilt trip.
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- Stamatis Kavvadias Jun 18, 2015
  
  You have a very big mouth and you have no idea what has been going on in Greece; and you believe yourself to be polite this way.
  
  You pretend you never heard about the people living below poverty line, or those searching in garbage for food. You cannot imagine, of course, what it can be like that several of your friends are jobless for years or hanging from a thread among lay-offs.
  
  You, conveniently, forget that the strongest proponents of austerity, ***that has never worked for anything in Greece***, borrow at much lower rates than those they demand from Greece.
  
  And you start tales of morality, about how YOUR MAGNIFICENCE knows why the Greeks drink!!!!
  
  You should be ashamed of yourself. Of course, everybody has an opinion.
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- Mark Stannis Jun 18, 2015
  
  And by emphasizing pensions to the poorest Syriza scores points by portraying Greeks as victims. Never mind doing something about taxes, or the high wages and early retirement your civil servants get, or perhaps trimming your military a bit (Juncker's proposal).
  
  In my story the bejeweled Greek wife berates the neighbours for not feeding the Greek kids enough while the Greek husband is chugging ouzo with a smile on his face. Where is the pride and honour in that?
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- Mark Stannis Jun 18, 2015
  
  It's a touching story, really, but this is not just about the suffering of the Greek people.
  
  Euro country loans amount to 240 billion euros and Greece pays an effective tax rate of something like 2%, not a more realistic rate like 5% on the market which it would get if it were Italy. The difference (about 7 billion euros annually) is make up by European governments on top of something like 3 billion euros that Greece gets annually from the EU. So in your story it's not just loans but also handouts. Which other European country gets as much per capita.
  
  On top of that Greeks don't pay the taxes they owe. Tax avoidance in Greece is estimated at 10% of GDP. All those accountants and dentists that don't pay their fair share to Greek society are screwing over their compatriots and yet it doesn't seem like they get called out on that. Not politically convenient I suppose.
  
  Think of the message this sends to Europe: "We Greeks can't be bothered to feed our kids and our elderly because we want to go out and party. So it's up to the neighbours to feed our dependents for us, and shame on them if they complain about it."
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- Stamatis Kavvadias Jun 17, 2015
  
  Lets say you are an employer and have an employee that is in dire economic condition and asks you for a loan. You consider his situation and decide to lend him some money, assuming, from personal experience, that with this kind of help he will be able to recover. After some considerable time, during which your employee is struggling, as expected, he comes to you and says:
  
  "I barely manage to keep up with your repayment, but, doing that, I have taken my kid out of school, to help me with family income and I have been living with my parents. Now, my kid has been fired and, to keep repaying you, I would have to call in my wife's parents too, in a rented house that hardly fits us and my parents. Selling my car, which I have already arranged, will not be of help for long. I believe you should take a second look to your claims from me, because I find it hard to believe I will be able to repay you for much longer under the current terms."
  
  It then crosses your mind that your employee's problems where economic and not financial, from the beginning, but decide to refuse to take a hit because of your misjudgement. You turn to your employee and tell him:
  
  "You must find a way to repay me under the current terms. I can help you move to a guest house, with yours and your wife's parents, where you will be paying less rent, which, along with saving the rent of your in-laws, will be enough to keep repaying me, as we agreed in the beginning."
  
  He tells you:
  
  "Me and my family are already exhausted keeping up with the deal you offered me. We will not make it, if we move out of our home, to a guest house."
  
  And you answer:
  
  "If you do not keep repaying me as agreed, not only you will also lose your job, but I will put you on trial for what you owe me."
  
  Now, what money do you expect the court can get out of this man?
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M M Jun 16, 2015

A pressure cooker (being Greece in this case) comes with a warning that the heating temperature should not exceed a certain level. If this heat level is exceeded, the consequences can be dire. In the case of Greece, everyone knows that the many, including the creditors have more than exceeded the heat (tolerance) level of the pressure cooker, bringing it to the point of explosion with the consequences of hurting / wiping out everyone around it. This brief example comes with a WARNING: ”please do not try it at home”.
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Alexander Robinson Jun 16, 2015

Exactly right, thank you for stating this so clearly.
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