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Troppi falsi allarmi dall’Fmi?

LONDRA – Se chiedete a Google di trovare il testo del Rapporto sulla stabilità finanziaria globale del Fondo monetario internazionale pubblicato nell’aprile del 2006, lui gentilmente vi domanderà se in realtà non stiate cercando la versione del 2016. Sicuramente l’Fmi non tenterebbe mai di manipolare un motore di ricerca, ma credo che ai responsabili degli affari pubblici del Fondo non dispiaccia se meno persone possibili hanno accesso alla versione 2006, che di certo non è stata una delle pubblicazioni più profetiche dell’organizzazione.    

Uscito proprio mentre negli Stati Uniti affioravano i primi dubbi sul mercato dei mutui subprime, il rapporto 2006 offriva un quadro roseo del presente e del futuro. Gli autori si chiedevano se gli squilibri globali, i derivati e i mutui subprime costituissero una minaccia per la stabilità finanziaria, ma evidentemente ciò che vedevano gli piaceva.   

Sul mercato dei mutui, l’Fmi intravedeva la possibilità di un atterraggio morbido, credeva che gli squilibri globali si sarebbero gradualmente appianati, e rendeva omaggio alla capacità dei mercati e delle società finanziarie statunitensi di creare strumenti innovativi per “attrarre e sostenere elevati livelli di afflussi di capitale”. Di fatto, i mercati Usa venivano descritti come “profondi, flessibili, sofisticati e, in linea di massima, ben regolamentati”. 

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