IMF Bloomberg/Getty Images

Het IMF zit er te vaak naast met zijn voorspellingen

LONDEN – Als je Google vraagt de tekst te vinden van het Global Financial Stability Report van het Internationale Monetaire Fonds van april 2006, wordt behulpzaam gevraagd of je niet op zoek bent naar de versie van april 2016. Ik weet zeker dat het IMF nooit zou proberen een zoekmachine te manipuleren, maar ik kan me voorstellen dat de pr-functionarissen van het fonds blij zouden zijn als zo weinig mogelijk mensen bij de versie van 2006 zouden kunnen. Dat was namelijk niet een van de meest vooruitziende publicaties van het IMF.

Verschenen op het moment dat de eerste twijfels aan de markt voor subprime-hypotheken in de VS zich openbaarden, schetste het rapport een rooskleurig beeld van heden en toekomst. De auteurs vroegen zich wel degelijk af of de mondiale onevenwichtigheden, derivaten en subprime-hypotheken geen bedreiging voor de financiële stabiliteit vormden. Maar ze waren tevreden met wat ze zagen.

Op de hypotheekmarkt meende het IMF het vooruitzicht van een zachte landing te ontwaren. Het fonds dacht dat de mondiale onevenwichtigheden geleidelijk aan zouden verdwijnen. En het verwachtte dat de Amerikaanse markten en financiële firma's innovatieve instrumenten zouden kunnen ontwikkelen om “een grote kapitaalinstroom aan te trekken en in stand te houden.” Amerikaanse markten werden omschreven als “diep, flexibel, geavanceerd en grotendeels goed gereguleerd.”

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