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Fond, který falešně bije na poplach?

LONDÝN – Zadáte-li do Googlu vyhledání textu Zprávy o globální finanční stabilitě Mezinárodního měnového fondu za duben 2006, stránka se vás přeochotně zeptá, zda náhodou nehledáte verzi z dubna 2016. Jsem si jistý, že MMF by se nikdy nepokusil zmanipulovat vyhledávací motor, ale dokážu si představit, že zaměstnanci oddělení pro styk s veřejností fondu budou šťastní, pokud se k verzi za rok 2006 dostane co nejméně lidí. Tato publikace totiž z hlediska MMF nepatřila k nejproročtějším.

Vyšla právě v době, kdy se začaly objevovat první pochybnosti o trhu s podřadnými hypotékami ve Spojených státech, a nabízela růžový pohled na přítomnost i budoucnost. Autoři sice řešili otázku, zda globální nerovnováhy, deriváty a podřadné hypotéky náhodou neohrožují finanční stabilitu, ale to, co zjistili, se jim docela zamlouvalo.

Na hypotečním trhu spatřoval MMF dobré vyhlídky na hladké přistání. Věřil, že globální nerovnováhy se postupně rozplynou. A složil poklonu schopnosti amerických trhů a finančních firem vytvářet novátorské nástroje, které „přitahují a udržují vysokou úroveň kapitálových přílivů“. Americké trhy byly v dokumentu označeny za „hluboké, flexibilní, sofistikované a celkově vzato dobře regulované“.

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