Las riesgosas reformas de China

NUEVA YORK – Cuando la reforma económica es el tema en consideración, los líderes chinos ya no creen que el tiempo esté de su lado. Con un nuevo sentido de urgencia, el presidente Xi Jinping y su círculo más cercano están intentando implementar uno de los más ambiciosos planes de reforma de políticas sociales y económicas en la historia.

Pero, en un país autoritario, el cambio crea riesgo. Considere la escala de los planes propuestos. Para que China llegue a la siguiente etapa de su desarrollo, una proporción mucho mayor de los productos fabricados en China, que ahora están destinados a ser exportados a Europa, América y Japón, deben ser vendidos a los consumidores dentro de China. Este cambio requerirá de un gran aumento en el poder adquisitivo local – y, por tanto, una enorme transferencia de riqueza desde las grandes empresas nacionales a los hogares chinos.

Asimismo, aparentemente los líderes chinos se encuentran a punto de aprobar la creación de doce nuevas zonas de libre comercio regionales, mismas que impulsarán la competencia y la eficiencia en una nueva escala en muchos sectores económicos. Los líderes reconocen la necesidad de una mayor liberalización del sistema financiero del país, medida que requerirá tolerancia con las inmediatas suspensiones de pago de los préstamos de cobro dudoso – y con la ansiedad y la rabia que dichas suspensiones traen consigo.

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