蚕食经济的银行

伦敦—英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)在去年年底的一次会议上预测伦敦银行资产将在2050年超过英国GDP的九倍,这番话令世界震惊。他的预测只不过是两大趋势的外推:全球范围的持续金融深化(即金融资产增长快于实体经济)以及伦敦保持在全球金融业务中的份额。

这两个假设相当合理,但这个算盘令许多人深感不安。拥有巨型金融中心和庞大的本国银行对纳税人来说或许负担沉重。在爱尔兰和冰岛,银行规模超出了政府在有必要时的支持能力。结果是灾难性的。

除了潜在援助成本外,一些人还指出金融部门过于庞大会吸走原本可以更好地配置于其他部门的人才和资源,从而伤害实体经济。但卡尼认为正好相反,英国经济的其余部分可以因为身处全球金融中心而获益。“身处全球金融系统核心,”他说,“扩大了追寻英国储蓄的机构的投资机会,也增强了英国制造业和创新行业的全球竞争力。”

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