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Miami Trumps Biden

In the recent US presidential election, one key swing state where Donald Trump performed better than he did four years ago was Florida – especially in its most heavily Hispanic sections. How did he do it, and how can President-elect Joe Biden and the Democratic Party recover this crucial voter base?

CAMBRIDGE – Joe Biden achieved a decisive victory in the US presidential election, beating Donald Trump by over six million votes nationwide. Powered by suburban voters, especially women, the Democratic candidate took back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016, flipped Arizona and Georgia, and garnered 306 of the 538 Electoral College votes.

But one key swing state where Trump performed better than he did four years ago was Florida – especially in its most heavily Hispanic sections. The growth in Trump’s margin in Florida between 2016 and 2020 is fully accounted for by his gain in Miami.

While Biden achieved important inroads elsewhere in Florida, in Miami – a city that accounts for more than 10% of the state’s voting population – the Democrats saw their advantage shrink to just seven percentage points, down from Hillary Clinton’s 30-point lead in 2016. Whereas support for the Republican Party in Miami grew by 60%, Democrats got 1% fewer votes there than in 2016, even as state-wide turnout increased by 20% and the Democrats gained 21% more votes than in 2016 elsewhere in Florida.

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