Евразийское решение для европейских кризисов

Sep 16, 2015 Sergei Karaganov

МОСКВА – Прошло больше 18 месяцев после изгнания бывшего президента Виктора Януковича из власти (и в эмиграцию), а кризис на Украине продолжается, зайдя в тупик. Крым воссоединился с Россией (многие считают это аннексией); большая часть восточной Украины находится под контролем пророссийских повстанцев; отношения между Западом и России напряжены больше, чем во времена Холодной войны.

Но выиграл ли кто-нибудь от этого? Те, кто хотел привязать Украину к Западу или воображал, будто санкции против России приведут к смене режима в Кремле путем дворцового переворота или народного восстания, увидели крушение своих надежд: популярность президента Владимира Путина высока, как всегда. В России же, те, кто предсказывал немедленный крах Украины и образование в её восточных и южных регионах пророссийской Новороссии, точно так же разочарованы.

Трагедия в том, что цена этих иллюзий оказалась невероятно высокой в человеческом смысле (несмотря на соглашение о прекращении огня число погибших в восточной Украине превысило 6000 человек с апреля 2014 года), а также очень опасной в геостратегическом смысле. Похоже, что обе стороны готовы биться «до последнего украинца».

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 in all 8 Comments on this article

Sergey Tokarev Oct 30, 2015

Really good article, way better than those of Empire stooges in HSE/Mr. Karaganov's subordinates we usually read. Maybe Mr. Karaganov should pay more attention to staff/professors of HSE? Cadres decide everything. People recieving fellowships in the USA and confusing them for bribes should be laid off at once. Lots of dogmatic liberal treasonous professors in HSE, which weakens the institution.
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Aldo Bertozzi Sep 20, 2015

Sowohl TTP als auch TTIP sind Ausdruck einer neuen Art der Kolonialisierung fremder Nationen, die nicht weniger schändlich ist als die alte. Machtpolitik wie die der NATO/OTAN tragen noch das Ihre (IRRE) ;) dazu bei.
- Sergey Tokarev Oct 30, 2015
  
  You are absolutely correct, Mr. Bertozzi.
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Michael Ekin Smyth Sep 20, 2015

Mr Karaganov pushes the already aging idea of a Eurasian bloc. There is no such thing and there never will be. There is China and then there is the rest. Beijing does not share Mr. Putin's worldview and clearly has little sympathy for his increasingly strange and violent behaviour. Nor does the Chinese leadership accept Russian penetration into Central Asia. It is combatting that with energy and will, no doubt, be successful. The Kremlin is obviously fascinated with the fact that an obscure northern English financial analyst managed to magic the BRICs into existence. They are now trying to do the same with this mythical Eurasia. However, unlike the BRICs, which are now past the sell by date, the myriad countries of Central Asia have never been aligned in any way, and likely never will be. Except, perhaps to Beijing. Never to Moscow.
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JOHN DURHAM Sep 18, 2015

I very much appreciated someone pointing out that the present condition of the U.S. is actually "...in semi-isolation, hoping to be called back to center stage at some unlikely “unipolar moment” in the future?" So seldom this is pointed out.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 16, 2015

Sergei Karaganov is proposing the West to mend fences with Russia for mutual benefit. He admits that the conflict in eastern Ukraine is "at a stalemate", and advises the West to accept the fact that "Crimea has been reabsorbed by Russia". The author points out that the "relations between the West and Russia are more tense than at any time since the early days of the Cold War". As there is no sign that both sides would "yield", and in the absence of a positive outcome, he urges for a political solution.
Both sides may be disappointed that their expectations haven't been met. Although Ukraine's future remains uncertain, there is no immediate risk of it falling apart. Contrary to predictions that sanctions would bite and bring Putin down, he is as poupular as ever. Yet his dream of a "Novorossia" has not become reality. Karaganov justifies Russia's need to defend its interests against the EU or NATO eastward enlargement, "after being pushed to the wall by more than two decades of Western expansion".
The author claims that this "atmosphere of mutual distrust" is already "re-dividing Europe", which is counter-productive "at a time when the entire continent, including Russia and many other Eurasian states, is facing the threat of Islamic extremism". Indeed he reflects Putin's plea to fight ISIS in Syria together with Western powers.
Karaganov says that "both parts of Europe" should come together, instead of drifting apart, with each looking for its own "alternative" to resolve problems. He blames Obama for turning inward, "leaving behind troubling zones of instability and unresolved crises", and he sees it as an evidence that the US no longer can maintain global hegemony.
While the author says the "geopolitical macro-blocs", the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) are important, he also underscores the significant role the "Greater Eurasia" and the "Eurasian Economic Union" could play for Europe, as they will lead the EU to China's "Silk Road" project. Basically the author suggests that Europe's future lies in Eurasia, and not so much on the other side of the Atlantic. He urges the US to be a "responsible player in a fairer wolrd" by abandoning its "semi-isolation" and getting real that there would unlikely be a "unipolar moment" any time soon in its future.
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Petey Bee Sep 16, 2015

Isolation would be absolutely wonderful. If Isolation were achieved, there would be no chaos in Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, perhaps Yemen. No authoritarians in Egypt. What's wrong with isolation?
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M M Sep 16, 2015

I am sorry but I fail to see or even understand the point (s) that the writer is trying to make. Why should the US lead and why should you or anyone else expect the US to lead? There is a security council at the UN that is meant to work within agreed charter and parameters. The US is not an Authoritarian regime, it is a democracy. The issues that you mentioned and all issues affecting world security are the responsibility of the 5+1 members. Until the 5+1 decide to change their attitude and decide how the pie is going to be shared, there will be no new world order, so I would not raise my hopes high for a solution to any world problem, any time soon. You also missed certain important facts about Ukraine. Ukraine was in the Western (German dominance) sphere for a while, when Y Tymoshenko was PM, then due to corruption / conflicts of interests, Ukraine changed hands again to Russia under Yanukovych, this failed miserably as well and both Putin and Medvedev accepted the fact that Yanukovych was a failure. What changed the rules of the game in Ukraine was not economical but rather strategic (militarily speaking) and that was the game changer and it was not Putin that started it, but the US proxies in Berlin.
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